Water Shortage, Low Crop Yield and Food Security: The Case Study of Pakistan

The objective of this research paper is to investigate the causes of water shortage, low crop yields and food crisis in Pakistan, using time series data from 1991 to 2019 to predict the behavior of corps production and food security in future. Crop yield was dependent variable whereas water availability, precipitation, seed, fertilizer and pesticides were used as independent variables. Various statistical techniques such as Descriptive statistics, ADF Test, Correlation Matrix, ARDL Model, Bound Test and Error Correction Model to analyze the data. The findings of study show that all independent variables except precipitation have positive relationship with crop yield. The comparison of the results of ARDL and ECM Models shows that the variables like water, seed, fertilizer and pesticides have more significant and positive relationship with crop yield in the short run than in the long run.