Unpacking the Growth Puzzle in Pakistan: The Roles of Technology Exports, Renewable Energy, FDI, Inflation and Population

This paper investigates the influence of key economic variables—high-technology exports, renewable energy consumption, inflation, population growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI)—on Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using time series data from 1990 to 2022 collected from World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) and employing the ARDL econometric approach. The findings reveal that high-technology exports demonstrate a positive long-term contribution to GDP; however, they correlate with a negative short-term impact, potentially linked to economic instability and inconsistent policy frameworks. Both FDI inflows and renewable energy usage were found to constrain economic growth in both the short and long run. Conversely, inflation exhibited a positive association with GDP growth while Population growth yielded a temporary boost to the economy but emerged as a hindrance to sustaining long-term growth. Consequently, the study suggests a more conducive investment environment, supporting the renewable energy transition, encouraging high tech manufacturing exports, expediting technological innovation and implementing strategies to control rapid population growth.