Internal Migration, Urban Population, GDP Growth and Environmental Degradation in Pakistan

This research investigates the long-run and short-run link between internal migration, urban population increase, economic growth, energy use, and carbon dioxide (CO2) release in Pakistan using annual data from 1990 to 2025. Internal migration is proxied by the change in urban population share and environmental degradation by total CO2 emissions (excl. LULUCF). Using dynamic the ARDL bounds-testing method, this research confirms the presence of a significant empirical long-run cointegration between explanatory and outcome variables. The study finds that urban population growth, CO2 release, GDP growth and energy use are positively related to environmental deterioration. The short-term results estimated by ECM indicate that around 21% disequilibrium is corrected every year. Diagnostic tests such as Variance Inflation Factor, Breusch-Godfrey LM, Jarque-Bera normality, Ramsey RESET, and CUSUM stability tests confirm the robustness of the model. Our findings indicate that unplanned urbanization and sustained reliance on fossil fuel-based energy are the key contributors to environmental degradation in Pakistan.